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Estimates about Corona virus Spread, End and Causalities

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Muhammad Arif : Chairman Centre of Advisory Services for Islamic Banking and Finance (CAIF), Former Head of FSCD SBP, Former Head of Research ArifHabib Investments and Member IFSB Task Force for development of Islamic Money Market, Former Member of Access to Justice Fund Supreme Court of Pakistan

Money Market, Former Member of Access to Justice Fund Supreme Court of Pakistan

People everywhere and in Pakistan in month of Ramadan are curious to know about the end of corona virus spread, how many people it is going to victimize and how many lives it would take.

Nobody can be sure about future and even of next day but it is human psyche to work on such hypothesis and mostly this prove positive in his favor.

Global COVID-19 deaths have climbed past 200,000, according to an AFP tally, but new reported cases appear to have leveled off at about 80,000 a day. Cases of infected persons have reached to 3 million. The death rate comes out as 6.6%. From the chart it can be seen that death rate has now reached to its peak so obviously in the coming days it is going to come down.

In Pakistan it was estimated by the government circles that at the end of April the number of cases would be 50 thousand with deaths as 3300 using death rate as 6.6%.

But fortunately at the end of April Pakistan has got 12723 with 270 deaths i.e. with 2.2% as compared to worlds 6.6 %. This is highly fortunate.

This epidemic has also revealed that countries being ruled by females are giving better results due to their timely made decisions. 26 countries in the world are being ruled by female leaders. They include Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Newzeland, Denmark, Belgium and Iceland. In these countries the death rates are not very significant because these countries took immediate decisions on lockdowns, testing and hospital arrangements.

Global leaders are launching an initiative with the World Health Organization (WHO) to accelerate the development of corona virus drugs, tests and vaccines and ensure equal access to all countries, but the US is not involved. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Angela Merkel were among leaders participating in a video conference to announce the plan. US president Donald Trump recently criticized the WHO’s handling of the pandemic and announced a withdrawal of US funding to the organization.

“The world needs these tools and needs them fast,” WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told the group. “We are facing a common threat which we can only defeat with a common approach,” he said.

In Iran and Pakistan there are concerns about the reluctance of officials to enforce social distancing rules for large gatherings now that the holy month of Ramadan has begun. Many Muslims in the US are opting for video conferencing instead of meeting in person for meals and prayers.

Many countries are using covid-19 contact tracers to help tackle the pandemic A few initial surveys looking at how many people have antibodies against the corona virus have suggested that far more people have been infected than previously thought. The corona virus pandemic is likely to be bad for our mental health, as many people are now experiencing the effects of social isolation, financial distress and the potential loss of loved ones

Putting things into perspective: The corona virus pandemic is making life feel slower than ever, but observing timescales across the universe can bring us some comfort. Up from covid-19 in Europe were in care homes, according to Hans Kluge, the World Health Organization (WHO) regional director for Europe UK government’s chief medical adviser Chris Witty said it was hard to prevent deaths in care homes “sadly because this is a very vulnerable group.”

Liu Jinaxi ‘data driven predictions of a Singapore based University about end of corona virus says that on world basis corona with 97% would end by May 29 and with 100% would end by December 08,2020. In US 97% would end by May 11.In Italy 97% would end on May 07. Likewise in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, UK would end in the mid of May or end of May by 97%. In Indonesia and Pakistan it would end by 7 June by 97%.

In another assessment after going down in mid or June this year it would reemerge in September and than in December this year.

However apart from this it must be kept in mind that at 40 places in different countries research is going on to find vaccine and drugs for treatment and at different times they would appear for their treatment. A trial is planned to test whether the BCG vaccine, used by some countries to protect against TB, may also offer some protection against covid-19. Bill Gates has said that he takes the responsibly to provide these vaccines and drugs to billions of people in this world within no time. Corona Virus is named as novel corona virus (nCoV), why because such virus has not been seen by the human body before. In fact every vaccine carry weak form of virus of that disease for which it is made like of measles. So when it enters in to human body the antibodies of white cells immediately dominate it and make the body prepared for the virus whether strong to ruin the system again.

Since the corona virus is very new for the human body therefore it is taking so much time. However treatment of Corona epidemic would not take as much time as Spanish flu had taken i.e. around 3 to 4 years.

But till we reach to our destination with these assessments all of us should take care of them as being told from time mainly through social distancing and by keeping ourselves clean mainly our hands.

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