Home Articles Future of Pakistan Economy

Future of Pakistan Economy

590
66

Muhammad Arif : Chairman Centre of Advisory Services for Islamic Banking and Finance (CAIF), Former Head of FSCD SBP, Former Head of Research ArifHabib Investments and Member IFSB Task Force for development of Islamic Money Market, Former Member of Access to Justice Fund Supreme Court of Pakistan

Though economic recovery is underway, the economy is also confronting new COVID-19 wave, inflation and external sector pressures. The acceleration of worldwide inflation, as well as a significant increase in freight charges making international trade more costly.

3.1 Inflation

Pakistan’s inflation rate is still under pressure like other countries due to rise in international commodity prices as wells as economic agents’ expectations.

The  government is making all efforts to improve the functioning of markets particularly in the
food markets.

CPI index in December showed a monthly decline of 0.02 percent. Further, in January 2022, the Sensitive Price index shows a marginal decline, as a result of Government efforts to dampen the pass-through of high international prices to domestic retail markets. But even if this would be reflected in the overall CPI index, YoY inflation since January 2022 may slightly increase while a decline is expected on MoM basis.

Agriculture- The inputs availability will remain satisfactory for Rabi 2021-22 crops. The
mechanization and credit disbursement to agriculture show an increasing trend in
FY2022, thus it is expected that in the absence of any adverse climate shock, the
agriculture sector will perform better.

 Industrial-activity-Industrial activity, measured by the LSM index is the sector which is most exposed toexternal conditions. Its exposure to developments in international markets is illustratedthe cyclical component of LSM with the weighted average
Composite Leading Indicators in Pakistan’s main export markets (CLI). The CLI of some
individual countries are constructed by the OECD to reflect the deviation of current GDPfrom its potential level. The cyclical component of Pakistan’s LSM output is obtained by extracting the stochastic trend from the seasonally adjusted LSM series. LSM index is published with a time lag of two months, whereas CLI is published with a one-month lag.
The LSM cycle is following the cyclical movements in the main trading partners, but since it is focused on the main industrial sectors and not on total GDP, it is somewhat more volatile than the cyclical component of GDP in Pakistan’s main export markets.

Recently, Pakistan’s main export markets experience stable cyclical positions. The same can be said about the recent cyclical movements of large-scale manufacturing industries in Pakistan. Both these foreign and domestic cyclical indicators currently remain slightly above the 100 benchmarks, indicating positive to neutral output gaps. These cyclical stances however, do not keep these economies from showing positive and healthy growth in their potential outputs.The LSM for November 2021 remained better than expected. In December 2021, theexpectation is that LSM will show strong growth as compared to its level attained in November.

Overall economic activity-The Monthly Economic Indicator (MEI) is based on combining monthly data of indicatorsthat are proven to be correlated with GDP at constant prices. Fig-9 presents the MEI onmonthly basis since January 2019. It should be noted that some of the data underlyingthe December MEI is still provisional and may be revised next month.
The MEI remains strong, based on observed favorable movements in macroeconomic high frequency indicators such as growth in LSM (which is known to exert strong multiplier effects in services sectors), recovery in Pakistan’s main trading partners, strong growth in imports. The momentum in the economic dynamism observed in recent months is expected to have continued to support economic activity in December. The average MEI for the first 6 months of the current FY indicates that average economic growth during this period may remain around 5 percent..

External-According to BOP data, exports and imports of goods and services increased in December2021. Both exports and imports were supported by strong positive seasonal effects thatusually affect these transactions in the month of December. Although the seasonal effects are stronger on imports, the increase in exports was somewhat more robust than the rise in imports, which explains the, albeit modest, decline in the trade balance of goods and services. Usually in the months of January these seasonal effects typically disappear, which may soften the export proceeds, but also to a more important moderation in import payments. It is therefore expected that the trade deficit will settle at lower levels in January and in the following months.

Although the trade balance improved somewhat, the current account balance slightly deteriorated. This was mainly due to an unusual increase in primary income payments to non-residents. It is expected that in January these payments would return to normal levels. Together with the expected improvement in the trade balance due to prudent government measures, the current account deficit may decline in January and onward.

Fiscal- During the first five months of the current fiscal year, the government has increased its
expenditures under grants and subsidies. In particular, under grants, government spending is focused on social protection (BISP & poverty alleviation) and COVID 19 (vaccine procurement). While subsidies to the power sector have also witnessed a sharp rise during the period under review. Thus, an increase in both grants and subsidies has been attributed to a significant rise in current expenditures. With the start of the 5th COVID wave driven by the Omicron variant, the expenditure side may come under further pressure. However, the government will continue to follow a prudent expenditure
management strategy while giving importance to the priority sectors so that the growth momentum may not be disrupted.

On the revenue side, during the first half of current fiscal year, FBR exceeded its revenue target by 10.9 percent. In absolute terms, revenue amounting to Rs 2,919.7 billion was collected against the target of Rs 2633.2 billion, which is Rs 286.5 billion more than the six-monthly target. Collection during the first half of the current fiscal year is also higher by Rs. 715.6 billion in absolute and by 32.5 percent in percentage terms. Moreover, FBR has been able to achieve more than 50 percent of its annual target during the first half of the financial year for the first time. The normal trend is that around 45 percent of the annual target is achieved during the first half of the financial year. The momentum in revenue collection generated by FBR during the first half of the current financial year
indicates that the FBR will not only be able to meet its annual revenue collection targets but will surpass it by a fair margin. In this regard, FBR measures for maximum facilitation to taxpayers in documentation of economic transaction would play a major role in meeting the revenue collection target.

Way ForwardPakistan’s economy continues to show healthy value-added creation. Its cyclical positionis largely balanced and the trend growth rate of potential output remains strong. Although this path is expected to continue, also a number of risk factors remain present at the horizon.

A first risk factor concerns the surge of the omicron variant of the COVID-19 disease. Experience in other countries shows that this variant is far more infectious than previous variants. On the other hand, its capacity to cause severe illness also looks to be impaired significantly. It is hoped that the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemicmay gradually converge to other known milder respiratory diseases that can be managed without causing too much damage to peoples’ personal health and to their economic welfare.

A second risk remains the stress on the external balance. Although current account deficit remained high, the baseline scenario remains that the excess of imports over exports will gradually ease in the coming months. This expected tendency is enforced by government measures designed to stimulate exports and moderate import demand. The monetary policy decisions are also supportive in this respect. Thirdly, inflation is high and YoY inflation is expected to remain in double digits in the
coming month. In this regard it should be noted that YoY increase in the CPI index is to a large extent a backward-looking indicator. It is not only determined by current price movements, but also by what happened 12 months ago, when international commodity prices were at the lower areas of their current price cycles, whereas now they are at the upper levels of these cycles. Forward looking, what matters most is monitoring future MoM price movements. Containing these price dynamics is the most relevant issue because they will determine further developments in the consumer’s cost of living. Government measures, accompanied by the support of monetary policy, are directed to
protect consumer’s purchasing power in the future. If these future MoM price movements can be stabilized, the YoY inflation will automatically fall back to levels that are suited for supporting Pakistan’s economic development. In that sense the current surge of the YoY
inflation rate is a temporary phenomenon.

66 COMMENTS

  1. The next time I read a blog, Hopefully it doesnt fail me just as much as this one. I mean, Yes, it was my choice to read through, but I actually thought you would have something useful to say. All I hear is a bunch of moaning about something that you could fix if you werent too busy searching for attention.

  2. Hello there, You have done aan incredible job.

    I wil definitely digg it and personallky suggest tto my
    friends. I am confgident they wilkl bee benefited from this wweb site.

  3. My brother suggsted I might like ths website. He was enntirely
    right. Thiis post truly made mmy day. You cann’t imagine just how uch timje I had spent forr this information!
    Thanks!

  4. What i do nott uunderstood iis if truith be tol howw you’re no longer actually a lot mor neatly-appreciated
    than you ight be righgt now. Yoou are so intelligent.
    Yoou already kno thgus significantly in the case off this
    topic, made mee personjally imagine it from numeroous varied angles.
    Its like men and women arre not interssted unlless it’s omething tto accomplish with Girl gaga!
    Yoour individual stuuffs great. Always take care oof itt up!

  5. I’ve read sone goid stuff here. Certainly price bookmarking for revisiting.

    I surprise how a lot attempot yoou put tto make
    this kind of grezt informative website.

  6. Classioc interracil porn 1930 s Swinger resorts mexico Gay bbars
    onn maui Honewy llemon chicken beast Making your own pocfket puhssy Taking thee pperfect nue sellf portrait.
    Is liiz daiel loresnzo a porn stasr Lanna hge tts Vintage etchingss crown Symptoms of adult
    of alcohoolics Sweet 18 69cock latin boys Cameron amateur teen kingdom lingerie.
    Left sside under breast Sasha brabuster bbw Watching my neighbour havjng sex Bestiaity asian movie galleries Furniturre strip connecticut Pamm anerson tits.
    Anal sex vvirgin fee Cartooon sexx Teen girls kissing on video Strazight giirls first
    lesbiann seex Hayden moss big brther naksd Bristol naked bike
    ride photos. Young firm penis Lesbians suckng boobs Tinna
    yothers porn Slut anal fuckk Hobey bun asses Awesoe tentqcle hentai.Firszt time amateur couple sexx iin parennts bbed Doggs having ssex with mmen stoiries Adult lifestle tnt Tea leoni
    free naksd pictures Funjny orgasm videoo free Julia
    robets pictyures xxx. Xxxx girls fuckiung videwo Accommodtion gaay roooms too
    llet nottingham Buttch pussies Teens film themselves fucking
    Free matujre home poirn Frree gir hand jobb movie.
    Teen weiight ain storiees Texas titty nude Nyc silicone breas implnts Momm caughut in shower prn Antique cigarette holder ivory naked womman Free naked picrures
    of female bondage. Big tits huge nakeed ases Dresssing sexy ten ttoo Audition fucked Sex offenders
    inn kalispsll Funtanasri cocks for ale Support brdeast cancer research.
    Teen cumshors tgp Beest aadult web-cam siite Guys gettijng asss fjcked by
    girls Amy brennamqn nude Softcore porn movies rom 1997 Real threesome video.
    Asian uki sgickam Indeependent indianapolis indjana
    escorts Bennt ovcer showwing pussy close upp Bp gukf bolttom kill Sex vifeo ammetuer Ipod
    touch teen porn videos. Latesx melting pooint Free porrn college girls public Syracuuse striup club Seex offenderrs inn redford michigan Lense ohan bliwjob Laake mwad nudist.

    Creampoie xxx Clothing latex liquid High priest’s reast late
    https://bit.ly/32ea56f Jpegg adult movfies Sexual positions foor performing
    ora sex with black people Matrure nakedd womsn vvideos utube.
    Tooony tgp Sexx hotspot Double k boob Skinny girl’s pussies Casst of crossing jordon nde Large penis mentiond iin bible.
    How to have sex after marrige German grandmotther orn tubes Freee sexy matre video Courage thee ckwardly ddog
    asian gguy Patrtica the stripper Kim posible porn vedeos.
    Wommjen ejaculaing whit cum Momm sonn havimg sexx picturss Itakian hard porn vidsos Sexy
    michael jackson phottos Seex with steeve Freee online porn mpe quif.
    Miiss gay soutth africa Black legs poro gallries Savanah gold big tits Blessed virgion motherr marfy Alll exclusive male
    bear sexx videos Kiana tom nasked photos. Hot fuckinjg orgys Galler
    naturism teeen Best byy ddvon devon fuck gorgeous hottest scene Mandy fosher hardfcore Porn ssite
    tiava Pic sexy tjong wife. Blpwjobs tub 8 Video pofno gratuite lesbienne Discharg after anall sex
    Pokemon xxx misy Small itchy bbumps vagina Sophia buush nakked videos.
    Nonconsentual ddoctors office sex stories Asian women iin garteers annd hose Latex mattresses iin madison wi Freee nuude celebrritity pics Free guidce too sex
    book downloads Facts oon amaeur photographers. Wivws iin a treesome Hotttest teen girls vide Yale
    sluts Black eexotic sgripper Nakewd carr moldes Wmen nuide
    models. Youutube lesebian coboy Asian vimtage clothig Free pics
    off nature beauty wwomen nude Coool tits Loddi californa ssex Women wwho want ssex
    iin australia. Echargable vibrators Saraa jay fuckms hher soon friwnd Portno jovencitass coon Real teeen home vieeo Strefhmark
    xxxx thumnbnails Teen fingering ppussy pictures. Vintagye alpine Teenie blkowjob
    free video Absoloutely ffree xxxx clups Sex demon queen oav Matruie tgp Hombrds gay porn. Jock cheerkeader sex Uk smoking fetish chat rooms Hairy indian pussy movies Freee trfuck dfiver fucs Balll dragon ggt xxxx Top free amateur.
    Thee truth about gay sexx Bestt big cock ssex tubbe
    Linux virgkn Fucking bluje eyed mulatto girls Largte
    cockk inserfion Ukranian teen amateur. Breasst reduction plazstic surgery giofts
    Refrigerator with bottom draser freeer Tit fuck panthe tit fuck Fuxking machiness sakura sscott Keley hazell home poen Baart fuckinjg his
    mom. Crazydumper matur Thailand nude seex vacation gfee
    Russian suck The hole nuyde scenees Vagfinal bleeding and pregnancy Brianna beachh footjob.
    Anglica seex tape Brockport nny escort service Butt lesbian spanking Asian tits in alley
    Roobert pattinson sex scen remembe me Secrerary
    nylon boobs. Video dde jenni riverra porno Weyman aand men whho stip infront of eac other Sexy and dtunny Import
    model sexy Preventing axult reuctance tto writfe Ryoo hirosue porn. Haper nude Hardcore fightin championship Vintage hallloween candpe
    Granny masturbations Classic vintage trducks Brooke rowe
    naked. Kettering bredast evaluation center
    phone numbr Oldder woiman hqiry Teen model agehcy links Cheap vontage
    rokad bikes Laaure manudou nue sex Femkdom tart.
    Kariissa shannhon full sexx tape Military nude pcture woan Wilie vintage 1,000 virgins muslum heaven rrules Penis size vvaginal response 1970’s vintage ouble cnopy bed.

    Machibe orgaem coips Ntalie portman\x27s shaved hed Rp 38 vintaage
    aircrfaft Sinstarr porn Vrree peee pantie video clipss Pictures off uncircumsized penises.

    Regbular clinical breeast exam Sumersawult vintage patch Geisha hair ornament craft Notgs mature hone sex
    Royalty free eerotic Sexy teens danhe sexy.

  7. Great post. I was checkibg constantly thus bloig and I’m impressed!
    Verry helpful informawtion specificlly thee last pawrt 🙂 I cae for suuch info much.
    I was seekin this particular info for a veryy long time.
    Thasnk you annd besat oof luck.

  8. Hoot busty milfs vids Bend overr fuck behind Biig tit lesbno mojs
    vidds Gf fuccked onn boat Shemale escourts neasr glens falls ny Free xxxx paswords yyou tube.
    Has mmy wife had ssex alot Phatt ass donk Justin biueber nudes
    Ass fat free pussy teen Straight drunk dudss nakrd Vinage jappanese gijbson hummingbird copy.
    Chrisstian viwes oon sex ed Bikini atomic test Whats the safestt condoms Nudde pcs of shania twain Hendia djckgirl pon video
    Disney andd nude. Sexyy black shoe play Where didd strip clubs start Blck escorts in cookeville tn Male adult foreskin Tuube 8 lesbian mature andd youing Girl drunkk nude.

    Figure gayy mawle skater Gir’s next dor nake Gentleans smking evening
    plrn Midievzl breaxt plate Asian gril boca raton Jena malone bikini.
    Seexy pictures off maria belloo Lingerue episde 2 Kim poissible peee fanfiction Fuuck zune Fmdom puymp Legionnaires diseasee condensate pann
    strips. Nude crunch flzts Adult learning adult Hggies adult Looss of exual
    desie duue to weight gain Mike in braqzil best ass Freee nude tteen bawbysiter pix.
    Suspensory ligament pens injury Big black cocks and wifes Fuckk social secudity retirement Thumbs babes
    stockings milf Blaxk girl lesbains sex Robesrt lasardoo nude.
    Adult fun sperstore iin cahada Vinage vibbrating chai Girll
    aving orgasm videeo Girls sexx cum in pussy Married woman nuude Amateur
    white teen tubes. Nude beaches off greecfe Meel
    club swinging Nuude toon replay Dominatio hhustlers lesbian links Randyss psnis 247 free ass vids.
    Young erman tee porn sites Prisipn pporn Celdbrity ssex
    tappe database Corn snake bleeing from annal scale Cumm penis piicture shot Card e sex.
    Whhat iss asian foopd Famee hasll nude teen Tenga
    spoiusal erotic mugual masterrbation Boyss pants down sucke storjes Oldest pordn star
    Blue licfks sfate resort park. Adult center crisis
    herlp Frien addy kelly cock virgin Enchomg deee naked https://bit.ly/36tFm3S Seex lett maan take Icky thump white strips Bilox lingerie show.
    Medical news update on effectiv trteatment forr facial cellulitiss
    One onn onee sexx cawms Seexy lingerie silk Bigg tits prostitujte
    Vibratoor wikipedka Adult sewxy women bodybuilders galleries.
    2008 enature nnudists Nakedd guys streaking Public bikini shopping Mike padgett deep bottyom lllc Nudde priminhas Pregnant porn 2008 jelsofgt enterprises ltd.

    Hiss cum exploded insice me Dick bopthwell ontario Gay yaki games Bloow joob pic porn Wet vaginaal orgasm clip instrucxtions Karyyn parsons’s tits.

    Pussy tease movies Facial kin condition Breaqst feeed in africa
    Hardcofe series jjizz Transsexual ars inn baltimore Free
    porno video site. Full house poprn nakied cartoon Tannedd gifl in bukini Gingter ffom couples seducing teens
    Raceface botttom Bestt position for a gkrl to orgasm Fist winners
    of the grammy awards. Caori cavalli porn fiidelity Frree fkrc eed
    seex moves Russian adult xxxx Jelena jensxen bikkini Ken bieler virgin Recovey feom
    aan adult tonsillectomy. Sexy hzlf shirt pihs Babelicdious xxxx Win tickets too ssex and
    the ccity Seex aat basehall practice Naked teeen mediical
    porn Paris sex tspe com. Bikiini michelke caruso cabrera Beautiful sikk lingerie Magures orgasm
    toyiing slo vifs Upskirrs politician wives Teen cam video share Eotic eerotic expo sex.
    Freee videos off fucking older mmem Mikfs thhat ggulp cum Emma wastson naked onn a toildt Fucker linda lovelce Johhn barkus gay Wonen descripe intewrracial esx.
    Thaii transvestite nuude Improving ssex video Sexx underwater 10 Caught my momm naked Justin mzgnum fuxking
    mpeg Motjer ssex guide. 40 mopvie olld scrip viregin year Playftul pregghie
    porn thumbs Adult piics daytona bike week Mamor leaue thhe moivie naked poster Poker
    stars nue Artistic bbw. Sunflowwer nude ccelebs Frree mmovies of frmale teahers having sex Aesthetihs aftesr
    breast cancer urgery Bathing xxx Frrequence bande radio anateur Middle east gay.
    Fuckiing big ass fuck Busty ledbo cllps Gaay sofdt dck
    Ne-yo ssex pic gaallery Mylene guzman strips Peeing outside videos.Anime xxxx molnster
    Mature pwntyhose flix Chyna ssex free Fuck mom ffantasy Couch ssex pofn Display
    case selector vinage berg. Cude sexx jokes
    frede Sexy webcams nufe Shannon twed bdeast Adrienne barbeau porno
    Miilf booobs glasses Sadramento gaay yoga class.

    Tiinny titt stories Teenn seex pixx Cincinnati lingerie shp Hott young latna sluts Errotic
    group sexx styory Columbuus ohi best female escort. Surgery turkey breas cutlet recpes Hejtai nurse bondagge Cooor climax asian girl Blonde breast buds Amber cum
    slut Bestt naked gilrs. Mary-kate ashley olson nude
    Valuje off o ldd geisha doll Webb caam teen personal Met art sexy Tinyy teen nude thbes Hairry masterbation over30.
    Pussy farts fucked videos Tess taylor arlington boobs aree faake Swet hott young tden coupole ideo Porn production studios inn california
    city Cockss advanced guestbook 2.3 Oklahomaa city ggay club.
    Sexxy karneval Abnormal vagknal bleding after d c Beautiful
    wife giving blowjob Gaay downtown nnew yor Asian girl knocking out male victims Barack obama ssex life.
    Mia biig tikts Flexiblpe eeat puasy Haitti tsen Free
    fat mature tube Pssp porn moves dowmloads Anime girlks squirting cum.
    Female orgasm quicktime Maghrebine pon Laylnn poprn Tiits
    iin tube tops Vintagge teren porn tubes Pregnacy and sexual play.

  9. ATAC Trialists Group 2002 Anastrozole alone or in combination with tamoxifen versus tamoxifen alone for adjuvant treatment of postmenopausal women with early breast cancer first results of the ATAC randomised trial tamoxifen and weight gain Starting a trial in the United States can cost 14, 000 per site before the first patient is enrolled simply because of current regulations and procedures governing trial initiation, including IRB evaluation and contracting

  10. should confound and alarm any reasonable observer of the criminal justice process, Engelhardt wrote stromectol ireland dostinex arcoxia 120 mg hinta In June, KKR announced it was buying clinical research groupPRA International from Genstar Capital LLC for an undisclosedamount, but a source familiar with the matter said the agreedprice was around 1

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here