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Pakistan showing some signs of Recovery

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Muhammad Arif : Chairman Centre of Advisory Services for Islamic Banking and Finance (CAIF), Former Head of FSCD SBP, Former Head of Research ArifHabib Investments and Member IFSB Task Force for development of Islamic Money Market, Former Member of Access to Justice Fund Supreme Court of Pakistan

Pakistan is showing signs of business activity picking up at a faster clip, as worries about new coronavirus infections fade in an economy that contracted for the first time in seven decades.

Evidence of momentum returning can be seen from growing cement-to-fuel sales and demand for home appliances to cars. That’s happening even as Pakistan added fewer than 2,900 cases last week compared with almost 35,000 cases in a week in June, and 96% of the total 300,000 infected have fully recovered.

“It has surprised everybody,” said chief executive officer at Tangent Capital Advisors Pvt., who expects economic expansion at 4%-5% in the year started July, higher than the government’s 2.1% target. “The growth is led by an aggregate demand push. “Here’s a look at sectors where activity is ticking Tracking COVID-19

204 million

Cases reported worldwide,

4 million

Total deaths reported worldwide

Vaccine doses administered in 181 countries

+29%

Change in MSCI World Index of global stocks since Jan. 23, 2020

-0.​4356

Change in U.S. Treasury bond yield since Jan. 23, 2020

Construction Boom- Cement sales rose 38% from a year ago to 4.8 million tons in July, and near a record level seen in October. A government program to give amnesty to tax evaders, provided they fund construction projects, is expected to fuel activity — and demand for cement — as work resumes after the lockdown. “We expect dispatches to continue their rising run moving forward because of tax measures,” said Saad Khan, research head at IGI Securities Ltd. “Substantial decline in interest rates and mandatory targets given for banks to increase housing and construction financing to at least 5% of private sector credit” will also help, he said. Cement sales eased to 3.5 million tons in August, mainly because of torrential rains across the country.

Fuel Sales- Gasoline sales in June rose to a record high as people return to work after lockdown measures eased in May, according managing director at KASB Securities Pvt. Sales have stayed elevated in July and August.Fuel for power generation has increased as well. Fuel oil sales rose in June to the highest in a year while LNG spot cargo purchase resumed in June after a six-month hiatus.

Car Sales- Local car deliveries have recovered to about 10,000 units after four months as the end of lockdown ushered in new demand.Kia Motors Corp.’s local unit is planning to add a second shift at its factory in Karachi from January.

Manufacturing –Manufacturing output improved for a second consecutive month in June. The overall recovery in large-scale manufacturing will likely be stronger in the October-to-December quarter with worldwide demand picking up, said, a former adviser to Pakistan’s finance ministry. Home appliances are also seeing “robust demand,” said, chief executive officer at Waves Singer Pakistan Ltd

Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to reach 1.3 percent in FY2021 and strengthen to an average of 2.7 percent for FY2022-23, according to the Pakistan Development Update released today.

2012–2022, BLS expects GDP to grow at a rate of 2.6 percent per year, reaching $17.6 trillion in the target year of the projections. The unemployment rate is projected to gradually decrease to 5.4 percent, accompanied by a gain in household employment of 12.3 million jobs

In the long-term, the Pakistan GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 1.50 percent in 2021 and 4.00 percent in 2022, Pakistan’s per capita income is $1543. In 1971, Pakistan was 70% richer than Bangladesh; today, Bangladesh is 45% richer than Pakistan. Pakistan sets 4.8% GDP growth target for 2021/2022 financial year – planning minister. … The IMF is estimating GDP growth for 2020/21 at 1.5%, while the World Bank puts the expected expansion at 1.3%

Different agencies’ predictions differ, but most put US CPI inflation within the range of 1.6% to 2.8% percent in 2021 and around 2% in 2022. Almost all agencies concur in predicting that CPI inflation will decrease in 2022 compared to 2021. According to the spring 2021 edition of the IMF’s Word Economic Outlook, the global economy is projected to expand at a rate of 6 percent in 2021, up from the 5.5 percent growth rate projected in January, due to the faster-than-expected recovery of advanced economies. While Pakistan is one of the richest countries in Asia, poverty in Pakistan is a fact of life for most of its people. The main cause of Pakistan’s poverty rate is the fact that many Pakistanis lack basic human rights. Many Pakistanis, often women and children, are begging in the streets throughout their country. Pakistan gdp growth rate for 2020 was 0.53%, a 0.46% decline from 2019. Pakistan gdp growth rate for 2019 was 0.99%, a 4.85% decline from 2018. Pakistan gdp growth rate for 2018 was 5.84%, a 0.28% increase from 2017. Pakistan GDP growth rate for 2017 was 5.55%, a 0.03% increase from 2016.Pakistan has a GDP per capita of $5,400 as of 2017, while in Nepal, the GDP per capita is $2,700 as of 2017. f you want to travel to Pakistan, Pakistan is currently safe for travelers of all genders. There are still security issues in more remote areas of the country, but after years of struggle with violence and terrorism, many places in Pakistan are now safe for locals and foreigners alike. He world rank of Pakistan is 160 (nominal) and 144 (PPP). Out of 33 Indian states/UTs, 28 states/UTs are richer than Pakistan. After 19 years, India’s GDP growth rate (-7.97) is lower than Pakistan’s (-0.39) in 2020. An income of between 1 lakh to 1.5 lakhs a month, with the same circumstances as above (and no rent to pay) will give you a fantastic lifestyle in Pakistan and you will have a good life Alhamdulillah. Pakistan is 7.1% cheaper than India. In Pakistani English, large values of rupees are counted in thousands; lakh (100,000); crore (ten-millions); Arab (billions); kharab (hundred-billions). …I n Pakistan’s major cities: In Lahore, the average house price was PKR 10,402 (US$ 73) per sq. ft in Q1 2019, up 6.25% from a year earlier, but actually down 2.89% when adjusted for inflation. In Karachi, house prices averaged PKR 13,158 (US$ 93) per sq.

Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
Currency 163.10 164 164 165 166 167
Stock Market (points) 47482.64 46315 45175 44064 42981 40892
Government Bond 10Y (%) 9.83 9.91 10 10.08 10.16 10.33

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 3.94 1.5 1.5 3 3 3
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.40 5 5 4.7 4.7 4.7
Inflation Rate (%) 8.40 9.5 8 4 4 3.5
Interest Rate (%) 7.00 7 7 7 7 7
Balance of Trade (PKR Million) -562924.00 -315000 -329000 -306421 -301176 -295730
Current Account (USD Million) -2482.00 -980 -1420 -1919 -1846 -1460
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -1.10 -1.5 -1.5 -2 -2 -2
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 87.00 88 88 83 83 83
Government Budget (% of GDP) -8.10 -7 -7 -5 -5 -5
Consumer Confidence (points) 44.12 50 46 44 48 50
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 29.00 31 31 31 31 31
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 20 20 20 20 20

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