Future of US-Taliban deal

On 29^th February US and Taliban have signed a deal in Doha to end its 18 years war in Afghanistan. Apart from India, Russia, China, Iran, whole Middle East, the actual stakeholders on the deal are US, Taliban, Afghan Government and Pakistan as they were the main sufferers of the ongoing war.

US, Afghan and Taliban officials are looking cautious to comment on this deal whereas in Pakistan reaction is that whole credit of the deal goes to Imran Khan and he deserves Nobel Peace Prize.

The Afghan war has been a bloody stalemate for years now, with the Taliban increasingly controlling or contesting more territory, yet unable to capture and hold major urban centers. Hence there seems to have been a growing realization, both amongst the group’s leadership and in the US that neither side is capable of an outright military victory. President Trump, meanwhile, has been clear about his desire to withdraw American troops from the country as with all his odds he is the only US President who has not remained part of US establishment after President Kennedy.

One key concession by the US, which allowed negotiations to take place, was the decision in 2018 to change its longstanding policy that the Taliban should talk first of all to the Afghan government, who the insurgents always dismissed as illegitimate. Instead now the US sat down directly with the Taliban to address their chief public demand – the presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan. Those negotiations led to 29^th February accord, with the Taliban agreeing in exchange to address the core reason for the US invasion in 2001, the group’s links to al-Qaeda.

This deal now opens the door to separate, wider talks between the militants and other Afghan political leaders – including government figures. Those discussions will be much more challenging. Somehow there will have to be reconciliation between the Taliban’s vision of an “Islamic Emirate” and the democratic modern Afghanistan that has been created since 2001. Where does that leave women’s rights? What is the Taliban’s stance on democracy? These are questions that will only be answered when the “intra-Afghan talks” begin.

Until now, the Taliban have been, perhaps deliberately, vague on these issues. There are possible obstacles even before those talks begin. The Taliban want 5,000 of their prisoners released before they start. The Afghan government wants to use those detainees as a bargaining chip in the talks to persuade the Taliban to agree to a ceasefire.

Then there’s the ongoing political dispute over the results of the presidential election – with Ashraf Ghani’s rival Abdullah Abdullah alleging it a fraud. A backdrop of political instability could make it harder to establish the “inclusive” negotiating team international observers want to see. Sitting across the table from the Taliban Afghan officials admit that even when they start, the “intra-Afghan” negotiations it can take years. But the US has signaled its intent to withdraw all its forces within 14 months if the Taliban fulfill their side of the agreement. It is not immediately clear if that means the US will stay on beyond that time, if no settlement has been reached.

Afghan officials emphasise that the pullout is “conditional”, but withdrawal was only contingent on the “intra-Afghan talks” starting, not concluding. They express concern that if the US pulled their forces out and the Taliban decides to up the ante on the battlefield, Afghan forces would be left extremely vulnerable.

So the first signal has now come from the Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani who has said that a seven-day partial truce would continue but he rejected a key component of a new US-Taliban deal that calls for the release of thousands of insurgent prisoners.

Meanwhile Taliban political chief met foreign ministers from Turkey, Uzbekistan and Norway in Doha along with diplomats from Russia, Indonesia and neighboring nations, a move that signaled the group’s determination to secure international legitimacy. The dignitaries who met Mullah Baradar expressed their commitments towards Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development.

The Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 after seizing power following years of civil war, and imposed many restrictions on women and activities it deemed “un-Islamic”. After being ousted from power in 2001, the Taliban have led a violent insurgency against the internationally-backed government, killing thousands. The Afghan war has been a stalemate for over 18 years, with the Taliban increasingly controlling or contesting more territory, yet unable to capture and hold major urban centers.

During the last two years of direct negotiations with the United States, the Taliban leaders opened direct channels of dialogue with Pakistan, Iran, Russia, China, Germany and Islamic nations, a move that poses a direct threat to the legitimacy of Ghani’s government. The fanfare around the signing ceremony proved that many countries are willing to start fresh talks with Taliban leadership.

In Pakistan we should also remain cautious on commenting Doha deal and giving its total credit to Imran Khan. Yet the stalemate is not over but has started. In Pakistan everybody is clear that which institution was deeply involved in the deal and has mainly suffered due to 18 years of Afghan war. So we should wait for the results of intra Afghan talks within its stakeholders on the issues of future of Afghan government and that how it would work, what would be the rights of its people specifically women, Tajik and Hazara communities and how rural and urban skirmishes are going to be patched up.