Review of 3 years of Imran Government by State Bank Annual Report

Posted on November 25, 2021
Muhammad Arif : Chairman Centre of Advisory Services for Islamic Banking and Finance (CAIF), Former Head of FSCD SBP, Former Head of Research ArifHabib Investments and Member IFSB Task Force for development of Islamic Money Market, Former Member of Access to Justice Fund Supreme Court of Pakistan

After witnessing a Covid-led downturn in FY20, Pakistan’s economy rebounded during FY21, with real GDP growth rising to 3.9 percent. It was 2.1% in FY 19 went down to -0.5 in FY 20 and now has come to 3.9% in 2021

Agriculture sector  growth was  0.6% on 2019, 3.3% in 2020 and  2.8 % in 2021.Industry remained -1.6 in 2019 was -3.8% in 2020 and now stands at 3.6 % in 2021.Large Scale Manufacturing was  -2.3 in 2019, -9.8% in 2020 and  14.9% in 2021. Services was 3.8% in 2019 -0.6% in 2020 and 4.4% in 2021.

CPI or Inflation (period average)a was  6.8 % in 2019 10.7% in 2020 and 8.9% in 2021.

Private sector credit growth remained 11.6% in 2019 2.9% in 2020 and 11.2% in 2021.

Money supply (M2) grew by 11.3% in 2019 17.5% in 2020 and 16% in 2021

Exports growthwas -2.1% in 2019 -7.1% in 2020 and 13.7% in 2021

Imports growthwas -6.8 in 2019, -15.9% in 2020 and 23.3% in 2021

Tax revenue –FBR growth was -0.3% in 2019, 4.4% in 2020 and 18.4% in 2021

Policy rate was 12.25% in 2019 7.0 % in 2020 and 7.0% in 2021 (Now in second half FY 2022 it has gone up to 8.75%

SBP reserves were 7.3 in 2019, 12.1 in 2020 and 17 billion dollars in 2021

Workers’ remittances were 21.7 in 2019, 23.1 in 2020 and 29.4.billion dollars in 2021

Current account balance was -13.4 in 2019 -4.4 in 2020 and -1.9 billion dollars in 2021

As % of GDP Fiscal balance was -9.8% in 2019, 8.1% in 2020 and -7.1% in 2021

As % of GDP Current account balance was -4.8 % in 2019 -1.7% in 2020 and -0.6% in 2021

As % of GDP investment was 15.6% in 2019 15.3% in 2020 and 15.2% in 2021

In terms of policy stimulus, the SBP provided aggressive liquidity support via multiple policy tools after the outbreak in March 2020, which stood around 5 percent of GDP by the end of FY21. Refinance schemes were introduced to shore up employment and the healthcare system, and to stimulate long-term investment in the economy Specifically, the Rozgar Scheme provided payroll support to businesses so they could retain their workers, and was instrumental in getting firms to restart their operations immediately after the reopening of the economy. In the same vein, the loan deferments and restructurings enhanced the liquidity position of firms and consumers, which helped prevent delinquencies. Meanwhile, the Temporary Economic Refinance Facility (TERF) would shore up the
long-term productive capacity in the economy. The SBP maintained an accommodative monetary stance, by keeping the policy rate unchanged during FY21, after a sharp 625 bps reduction during Mar-Jun 2020. Importantly, SBP liquidity support sheltered both small and big businesses. Specifically, for the loan deferment and restructuring package and the Rozgar scheme microfinanceinstitutions had about 94.1 percent and 74.4 percent share in the total applications approved by SBP, and constituted around one-fifth share in the actual benefits availed by businesses from these schemes.

In addition to the monetary stimulus, the SBP undertook other policy initiatives to bolster economic activity. These included: (i) measures to boost digitization in the economy amidCovid-related mobility restrictions; (ii) relaxing credit requirements for exporters and importers; and (iii) incentivizing housing and construction finance; and (iv) adopting forward guidance as a tool to communicatefuture monetary policy stance, to address Covid-related uncertainty and to facilitate economic decision-making

The economic recovery during FY21 is projected to gain further momentum in FY22.
This is evident in the significant increase in machinery and raw material imports, continued expansion in consumer financing, and strong uptrend in domestic sales as seen from high frequency demand indicators during the initial months of FY22. Partly capturing these dynamics, the SBP is projecting GDP growth in the range of 4-5 percent in FY 22.

Now we come to concluding remarks that say that in 2016 there were 243 thousandschools in 2020 their numbers are 267 thousand in 2021. They have 1,369 thousandteachers in 2016 that are now 1555 thousands in 2021.

On health side we have 1243 hospital in 2016 whereas in 2021 there numbers are 1282.

On population we had 181 million people in 2016 whereas in 2021 the number is 226 million. The unemployment rate is 7% of total population that has been inched up to 10% .On human development we are incurring Rs1, 543billion. On law and order we are incurring just 458 billion

It seems impossible that Imran khan could come out of economic crisis in 2023 (the election year) under IMF flag.

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